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Risk Analysis
We've published every assumption, risk, and validation plan behind Luna One. Now, it's open season. Give us your best shot!
Great critiques get a conversation. The best conversations get job offers.
Everything below is what we're betting on. If any of these are wrong, we want to know.
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| Category | Assumption | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic | Direct-to-surface delivery via Starship HLS cargo (no orbital staging/Gateway) | Avoids mass/complexity penalties; saves 30-50% vs. multi-step; leverages NASA-contracted HLS. |
| Commercial-only model (no government funding/prime) | Enables faster, risk-tolerant execution; focuses on revenue (O2/metals/tenants). | |
| Equatorial mare site (no polar ice) | Simpler terrain/ilmenite-rich regolith; avoids uncertain polar logistics/politics. | |
| Aggressive timeline: precursor 2026-2027, revenue ops in 12-18 months | Starship cadence est. 25-50/year by 2027; commercial projects typically 3-5x faster than government. | |
| Launch | Starship HLS delivers ~100 t usable per flight | Conservative baseline after refueling/margins; 80% utilization. |
| Delivery cost ~$100M per 100 t (incl. 4-6 tankers/depot) | Mature SpaceX ops; early missions $150-200M with 20% contingency. | |
| Dual sites (Starbase + KSC) enable multi-ship waves | Prepares for high cadence; avoids bottlenecks. | |
| Hardware | Sierra LIFE habitat deployable with robotic 2m overburden shell | NASA NextSTEP-2 study; high-fos Vectran shell; semi-autonomous burial (GITAI/IPEx). |
| 80 kWe fission power (2x40 kWe FSP) available/deployable by 2027 | NASA/Westinghouse contract; nuclear essential for lunar night. | |
| MRE + MSE ISRU: 3.2 kg O2/hr at 70-95% uptime | TRL 5-6 prototypes; redundant kilns; 20% yield buffer. | |
| Semi-autonomous robotics for burial/ISRU maintenance | TRL 5-6; Earth teleops + sufficient for onsite AI (2.6s latency). | |
| Operational | Daytime-only human rotations to prove systems before long stays | Nuclear/robotics enable uncrewed ISRU; minimizes early psych/medical risks. |
| Dust mitigation <20% downtime (ports/curtains/pre-clean) | NASA/ESA studies; layered redundancies. | |
| Crew of 4 cross-trained specialists | Proven on ISS/analogs; reduces logistics. | |
| Financial | $1.5B budget sufficient (incl. 20% contingency) | CLPS/Axiom benchmarks; no cost-plus overhead. |
| Revenue starts 2027-2028 at $50-100M, scales to $500M+/yr | O2 at $1M/kg; tenants $8-12M/slot; de-risks program. | |
| $350M private funding raisable in 2026 | Growing space market; attractive first-mover story. |
We've identified 14 key risks across technical, programmatic, financial, legal, and operational domains. Mitigations reduce overall residual risk to Medium, but we know we haven't thought of everything.
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| Category | Risk | Probability | Impact | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | Orbital Refueling Failure/Delay | High | Critical | Medium |
| Dust & Regolith Challenges | High | High | Medium | |
| Radiation & Thermal Extremes | Medium | High | Low | |
| ISRU Yield & Uptime | Medium | High | Medium | |
| Programmatic | Starship Development Slips | High | Critical | Medium |
| Integration & Qualification Delays | Medium | High | Medium | |
| Crew Health & Rotation Issues | Medium | Medium | Low | |
| Financial | Cost Overruns | Medium | High | Low |
| Funding/Investor Delays | Medium | High | Medium | |
| Insurance & Liability | Medium | Medium | Low | |
| Legal | Outer Space Treaty & Resource Rights | Medium | High | Medium |
| FAA/ITAR Licensing Delays | Medium | Medium | Low | |
| Operational | Crew Safety (EVA/Dust) | Medium | High | Medium |
| Tenant Adoption | Low | Medium | Low |
Top risks (refueling/dust/supply) could add $200-300M, but can be mitigated with dual-sourcing and early contracts.
An estimated ~$70-100M in early spend to confirm the critical components of the architecture before major commitments. Each item has a clear success threshold and a pivot if it fails.
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| Priority | What We're Validating | Method | Timeline | Est. Cost | Success Criteria | If It Fails |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Showstopper) | Orbital refueling at scale | Observe SpaceX demos + data-sharing | Q2-Q3 2026 | $0-5M | ≥8 transfers, <10% boil-off | Delay 6-18 mo; hybrid solar/smaller precursor |
| 2 (Critical) | Robotic overburden + habitat stability | Mojave analog (rovers/mockup) + vac/thermal | Q3-Q4 2026 | $30-40M | Stable, <5% pressure loss | Switch to sintered/rigid (+$50-100M) |
| 3 (High) | Dust mitigation <20% downtime | Vac chamber + simulant/EVA tests | Q3-Q4 2026 | $15-20M | ≥50 cycles, no failure | Redesign suits; reduce EVA |
| 4 (High) | ISRU ≥2.5 kg O2/hr, ≥70% uptime | Prototype vac runs | Q2-Q4 2026 | $20-25M | ≥80% yield, 70% uptime | Scale back revenue; add kiln (+$3M) |
| 5 (Medium) | Early tenant letters of intent ≥$10M | Outreach + Mojave demos | Q4 2026 | $2-5M | 2-3 signed, totaling $10M+ | Focus on O2; lower valuation |
| 6 (Medium) | FSP nuclear deployable by late 2026 | Monitor NASA + partnership | Q4 2026 | $0-5M | 2027 delivery confirmed | Interim solar/batteries (+$50-100M) |
This isn't a formality. We published this because we want it battle-tested by technical experts with standards as high as the stakes. Find something we missed and introduce yourself. We're hiring.